There’s a famous story about World War II planes that survived attacks. They were studied to see where they had been hit, and the results were mapped. The map showed some dense clusters of hits, and some experts recommended that planes be reinforced in these areas. But Abraham Wald disagreed.
Wald argued that they should reinforce the areas that had no bullet holes. Why? Because the planes that were hit in those areas did not survive to be studied. That’s where the greatest danger was. Read more about it here.
It’s now called survivorship bias. I was reminded of the concept the other day when I saw a post about AI that argued using AI was like using calculators. Everyone worried when calculators were introduced that they would weaken math skills. But we’re fine. . . or are we?
If we look at the survivors, we might see people who are still good at math. They took courses in financial mathematics or statistics and they have some sense of how to read trends. But maybe we have been looking at the survivors, and not the whole picture.
Does this mean that you should stop using the calculator function on your phone or trusting the machines to calculate your tips? No. But it does mean that you should test your critical thinking instead of counting on it.
